The Agitator

We have now completed two cycles of our Fundraising Vital Signs surveys, in which we ask readers of The Agitator to share their prognostications regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of 2008 (see Survey 1 results here).

Our overall response profile remains the same: three-of-four respondents work in a nonprofit organization; the other respondents work for a fundraising agency or as independent fundraising consultants. Respondents are nicely representative of the full range of nonprofits, from advocacy groups, social/human services and arts & culture, to medical/health, education and humanitarian assistance. Thanks to respondents one and all.

Here is an overview of the latest responses. Keep in mind these responses are directional only.

Key findings

In every respect, the latest responses are gloomier in outlook than our first report.

• 62% of responding nonprofits (vs 32% in Survey 1) expect their last quarter 2008 returns to be down by 10% or more, compared to actual returns for the same period in 2007;
• 19% of nonprofits (vs 27% in Survey 1) expect their last quarter 2008 returns to be down by less than 10%;
• Thus, 81% now expect a poorer year-end than in 2007, whereas 58% so indicated a few weeks ago.
• This dour expectation has spread through all sectors … we detect no meaningful distinctions, whereas in Survey 1 animal welfare and faith-based groups were showing a bit more optimism.

For the entire year, 71% of nonprofits now see their overall returns being down from 2007, versus 48% expecting a downturn in Survey 1.

As for member/donor growth, 27% of responding nonprofits project that they will have fewer donors/members at the end of 2008 than they had at year-end 2007; 49% say about the same; and 25% say they will have more. Advisers are just a bit more cautious. These figures are unchanged from Survey 1.

Agencies/consultants continue to be more pessimistic than their nonprofit clients. Most striking is the fall-off they see in renewal programs and prospecting — 75% of advisers see a downturn in renewals (vs 47% on client side), and 88% see a downturn in prospecting (vs 74% on client side).

For all respondents, the most stable fundraising program continues to be monthly giving — 73% of nonprofits expect these programs to perform on par with or better than last year, whereas 53% would say this about their renewals (their 2nd best performing program).

Finally, we asked repeat respondents participating on our Vital Signs Panel whether they had become more optimistic or more pessimistic in the last few weeks — 38% said more pessimistic; 25% said more optimistic (I’d like to meet them!); 38% said about the same.

Here are some of their comments:

• I’m feeling about the same for the balance of 2008 but I am more pessimistic about 2009. I think we’re in for a long slow and probably bumpy climb out of this hole.
• Slightly more optimistic… renewal returns appear to be holding up.
• I am more concerned than I was two weeks ago. I think retail spending is more indicative of philanthropic activity than most other indicators. While market fluctuations can’t really prove anything about a donor’s personal outlook on their economic prospects, I believe that consumer spending does. From my perspective, the recent downturn in consumer spending translates to reduced giving.
• Slightly more optimistic - response rates seem to be recovering somewhat, though average gifts continue to be lower.

What to do?

Everyone has gotten the message about NOT backing away from asking current donors and members for contributions! Whereas 50% of nonprofits reported they were "soliciting our house file more aggressively" in Survey 1, by round two fully 70% are doing so. Both advisers (81%) and clients (76%) consistently report that they have adjusted messaging to reflect the economic environment. And more advisers (20%) and clients (24%) indicate that they are cutting back on prospecting.

To close, here is a flavoring of the verbatim comments offered by respondents:

• An unexpected windfall kept our donations on track to meet budgetary needs but concerns are for 2009.
• Most donors are telling us that they will give, but to wait until December.
• Adding friendraising and fundraising events.
• Following up with prior donors who have not given yet.
• One cultural organization sent an appeal on September 12 that seven weeks later on Nov, 4 had a response rate of 6.93% and a $53 average gift. They have had 5 returns since. The mailing just died. Based on their previous history and the first seven weeks, I would have expected at least an 8.5% response rate.
• Worsening conditions.

We plan to do another Vital Signs update or two in December. We hope you will participate.

Tom

P.S. These results and recommended action steps will be discussed TODAY Friday, November 21st in a special Editors TeleBriefing at 2-3pm EST. Free registration here for the TeleBriefing.

Here from Dave Dutch of web consulting and software firm Vignette, via Mediapost, is the most gushing vision I’ve seen lately of the role of online video in a corporate setting. He refers to the "video-centric enterprise." But think about the applications for your "video-centric nonprofit" as I quote at length:

"Video’s importance … can transform every aspect of an organization, from sales, marketing and communications to investor relations, employee training and education.

Externally, companies can better engage customers, partners and prospects with product demonstrations, presentations and how-to videos. Apple recently rolled out a 30-minute video - part guide, part advertisement - to accompany its new iPhone. Blendtec, the household appliance maker, attributes a 700% increase in revenue to its popular "Will it Blend?" webisodes.

Beyond the marketing examples, investors will be able to access corporate data in video form, whether it is an annual meeting, a message from the CEO or a video news release. Video archives will likely play a vital role in meeting federal compliance requirements.

Internally, video will become a primary form of communication. Think of a broadcast greeting embedded in a personal email or executive video memos — the latter of which is already being done by early video adopters such as British Telecom. Video libraries will usher in a new phase of knowledge sharing and best practices, as employees access huge repositories of education and training videos.

The most sophisticated online video practitioners will become a de facto corporate broadcast network constantly issuing its news and information to customers, employees and partners."

I think Dave is spot on. I know if I were looking — in the midst of a depressing economy — to retain and energize my nonprofit’s best donors, I’d want them to see and hear "face-to-face" from my CEO and top program folks (at least from our strongest communicators) a re-affirmation of our mission … an online video would be the affordable and compelling way to do it.

Tom

P.S. Three weeks ago, The Agitator began to take the pulse of nonprofit fundraisers regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of the year and beyond, via our Vital Signs Surveys. Results and recommended action steps will be discussed tomorrow Friday, November 21st in a special Editors TeleBriefing at 2-3pm EST. Free registration here for the TeleBriefing.

As told by Ad Age, here is a fascinating account of the brouhaha over a recent — now deceased — advertising campaign for Motrin, the painkiller. It’s left some executives at Johnson & Johnson’s McNeil Consumer Healthcare unit consuming a lot of their own medicine!

The ads were an attempt by Motrin to connect and show empathy with moms … but some moms were instead insulted and incensed. And a backlash that ignited via blogs and Twitter on last Friday caused J&J to pull down the campaign by the next Monday! That’s quite a result.

Here’s the apology they posted on the front page of the Motrin website …

But it’s not easy to "pull" an ad campaign these days. Try googling "Motrin" and you’ll see how much backlash was triggered … and still lingers!

To see what the fuss was about, go to the Ad Age piece to view the online video ad, which is accompanied by a print ad campaign. What’s your reaction?

This episode provides a great case study for issue advocacy of the future. If the right hot button gets hit, in an age of amazingly powerful and infectious social media, watch out!

Tom

Just when you need to send one critical email before you dash off, or are at the juiciest part of the conversation …

Your internet service disappears, or your computer freezes (or worse, does that never-ending hourglass or spinning wheel thing), or your cellphone fails.

According to this report from Pew Research, When technology Fails, you’re not alone!

• 44% of those with home internet access say their connection
  failed to work properly at some time in the previous 12 months.
• 39% of those with desktop or laptop computers have had their
  machines not work properly at some time in the previous 12 months.
• 29% of cell phone users say their device failed to work properly
  at some time in the previous year.

Since there’s nothing in this report that can actually fix the problem for you, I guess you can just file this in the "misery loves company" category!

Now, when your computer and internet connection is working, you might want to monitor the YouTube Presidency promised by President-elect Obama. As reported here by the Washington Post, Obama plans to augment the traditional weekly national radio message from the President with a video-version distributed via YouTube. Other interactive online tactics are planned as well, drawing from communications experience gained during the campaign. Whether all this produces authentic participation, or just more sophisticated message management, time will tell.

At a challenging time in nonprofit fundraising terms, I suspect that your nonprofit will need all the loyal and devoted donors it can muster in the coming year … motivating current donors needs to be at the top of your list. Perhaps you and your CEO need to watch how the Obama folks try to use technology to maintain and employ the bond between the president and his constituency as his term unfolds. I expect the Obama communications folks will be rather clever and creative about keeping his supporters energized.

Tom

Free: Sign up here for first Agitator Editors Telebriefing, Fundraising in Troubled Times, this Friday, November 21, 2 pm eastern. Details in postscript.

Today The Agitator releases the second in its new series of DonorTrends White Papers. These papers are available to subscribers to The Agitator’s new Premium service.

The second paper is titled Giving Across Generations: The Giving Process. It explores the charitable giving attitudes and behavior of three segments of US donors:

• Seniors - born before 1946
• Boomers - born 1946-1964
• Newbies - born after 1964

In The Giving Process, we look at these questions, comparing the generations:

• How do donors view charities?
• Why do they resist or stop giving?
• What channels for giving do they use and prefer?
• How committed are they to the charities and causes they give to?

The data in this paper is drawn from an extensive online survey of 1,500 donors we conducted earlier this year. Much of the response data is directly comparable to the similar survey research we conducted in 2005.

Among the findings:

• A consistent 52% across the generations agrees that overall, the money they contribute is well-spent … is this a glass half empty or a glass half full?!
• Confusion reigns — in a variety of ways, donors, especially Seniors, indicate their inability to sort out which charities do what … and how well.
• Less than three-in-ten donors agree that nonprofits generally do good job of documenting the effectiveness of their work.
• Seniors are most tolerant of the organizations they support (i.e., don’t disagree, become dissatisfied or see more effective group), Boomers are the most demanding, followed by Newbies.
• Two-of-three donors prefer to give to non-political and non-advocacy organizations, like faith-oriented or service organizations.
• Direct mail is still the preferred medium for giving for half of each generation.

These generational differences and similarities are analyzed in Giving Across the Generations: The Giving Process, and specific actionable recommendations are proffered for planning your fundraising accordingly.

Roger & Tom

P.S. Three weeks ago, The Agitator began to take the pulse of nonprofit fundraisers regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of the year and beyond, via our Vital Signs Surveys. You can take the Vital Signs Survey 2 by NOV 19th. Results and recommended action steps will be discussed on Friday, November 21st in a special Editors TeleBriefing on Friday at 2-3pm EST. Free registration here for the TeleBriefing.

Week-In Review:

The dismal drone of economic downturn continued unabated as stock markets dipped, retailers forecast a bleak holiday season, Ad Age reported that online consumer spending is also slowing, and representatives of the G-20 convened an emergency economic summit in Washington, D.C. that will run through the weekend.

Here at the Agitator we released our latest white paper, “Giving Across Generations” as part of the launch of our new Premium Service, and are now at work on our first telebriefing –“Fundraising in Tough Times” – which will be held next Friday afternoon and is available free of charge to all Agitator readers on a first-come-first-“seated” basis.

Week of November 10

Monday: New Agitator Paper: Giving Across Generations

On Monday The Agitator released the first in its new series of DonorTrends White Papers. These papers are available only to subscribers to The Agitator’s new Premium service.Among the findings:

• Strongest growth in giving since 2006 has occurred among Newbies;
• Boomers are the enigma, declining in both percent giving and average gifts (we offer a theory as to why this might be occurring);
• The “hot” giving category across all generations is animal protection and welfare;
• The top areas for advocacy giving going forward appear to be family values, environmental protection, advocacy for the needy, and human rights.
• The most significant future challenges to America perceived by donors are falling educational achievement, coping with global economic competition, and the inability of the political system to deal with major urgent issues.

Learn more about our Premium service to access the full analysis along with actionable recommendations.

Tuesday: Conscious Consumption - All About Value

Two exceptional articles from the LA Times and NY Times explore how commercial advertisers are responding to the challenging task of selling during a severe economic downturn.

As they see it, given today’s consumer psychology, every offer must emphasize — in a word — value.Both of these articles underscore two big challenges for nonprofit marketers.And as Tom warns, “Effective fundraising appeals are still there waiting to be crafted … but “crafted” is the operative word. In these times, slapping together “same old, same old” messages won’t get the job done.”

Wednesday: NY Times on Giving 

The latest NY Times special section on giving is, as usual, a “must-read” comprehensive review of the state of the philanthropic and charity universe.Whatever your field of interest there’s something in this superb compendium of articles for you. Oddly the one area not covered is the behavior in these troubled times of the small gift donor.For a good overview on the current climate, read Stephanie Strom’s article on the impact of the economic downturn on giving. Her report, prepared with assistance from James Freed, gives a surprisingly upbeat picture, given the circumstances.

Thursday: Online Spending Growth Slows

An AdAge article reports consumer spending online is slowing this year-end, reflecting the overall economic downturn.Perhaps there are warning signs here for online fundraising.Analyzing the figures, Tom offers positive perspective “one might infer that 55% of consumers will spend the same (or even more) online this year! … Might this mean that nonprofits will see online giving hold more firm than direct mail as the year closes out?

Friday: Tell Us Your Vital Signs - 2

Two weeks ago, The Agitator began to take the pulse of nonprofit fundraisers regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of the year, via our Vital Signs Survey 1. We reported the responses to Survey 1 here.

Please take this Vital Signs Survey 2 by November 19th. Results will be reported on Friday, November 21st both in the daily post and through a special Editor TeleBrief on Friday at 2:00pm EST.Free Registration for the TeleBrief will be open on Monday – be on the lookout the announcement and email on how to join us for this briefing. 

Your Weekend Bonus:   While the excitement and optimism surrounding Barack Obama’s historic ascension remains palpable, it’s impossible to deny the daunting challenges ahead due to the current economic downturn. Some economists posit that we are in for a rapid uptick in the economy before the end of 2009.

At the other end of the spectrum are those who anticipate a global recession/depression extending for a number of years.  Uncertainty remains the watchword, making a white paper authored by Mal Warwick and Dan Doyle of Mal Warwick Associates a must read.   Click here to view the full piece, titled, “Fundraising in Tough Times: A No-Nonsense Guide to Surviving in a Challenging Economy.”

Their report takes a longer term view of the current crisis; focusing on three scenarios for economic recovery, the strategic attitude that philanthropic organizations should choose to adopt for long term success (and the pitfalls of not picking the prudent path), and how this strategic tack should be applied in practical steps.  

Dan and Mal argue that whether the recovery comes quickly, or a lengthy recession ensues, the only wise choice for your organization is to take the “selective approach”.  The case is a compelling one, and further, they provide nine practical steps that you should be considering right now.  

I almost always agree with these guys, including their recommendation to move swiftly to implement almost all of the steps put forth in their white paper. But, frankly I’d think before moving on the fifth recommendation suggesting that testing and innovation be reduced rather than increased.  

I believe that in times like these testing and innovation are more important than ever.   In fact, no matter what the economic conditions, if you aren’t aggressively developing and testing a pipeline of new messages and methods, your long term success is sure to suffer.

Thanks to Dan and Mal for their thoughtful advice.

Have a great weekend.

Roger

Two weeks ago, The Agitator began to take the pulse of nonprofit fundraisers regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of the year, via our Vital Signs Survey 1. We reported the responses to Survey 1 here.

We are repeating our brief  Vital Signs Survey 2 to collect your ongoing perceptions and predictions. Whether you work in a nonprofit or for a fundraising agency or as a fundraising consultant, we would like to hear and share your prognostications.

Please take this Vital Signs Survey 2 by November 19th, as we plan to report the results on Friday, November 21st.

In fact, we will be discussing the results with Agitator readers in a one-hour Editors Telebriefing on November 21st at 2-3pm eastern.

We hope you can join us, and take the opportunity to phone-in your questions. So hold the date, and watch for sign-up details next week on The Agitator.

We look forward to your assessment and to chatting with you on the phone on the 21st.

Note: Agitator readers who have already signed-up to serve on our Vital Signs Survey Panel, please watch for your special survey email today and respond to that.

Thanks,

Roger & Tom

As reported in this Ad Age article, consumer spending online is slowing this year-end, reflecting the overall economic downturn.

Perhaps there are warning signs here for online fundraising.

Forrester Research says the rate of growth in online sales for November and December over the previous year’s Christmas season will be 12%, compared to 20% a year earlier. But still, we’ might take a "glass half full" perspective on this, as growth is, after all, growth! And "bricks & mortar" retail spending is projected to grow only 2%. Indeed, 24% of the total holiday spend this year will be online, compared to 22% in 2007.

On the other hand, 45% of consumers are saying that they will spend less online this year than 2007, compared to 20% who said that last year. This would appear to be supported by Hitwise, who reports that there have now been nine consecutive weeks of declining online traffic to sales-oriented websites; whereas one might think that cash-conserving shoppers might be looking more than ever for online bargains.

But again, taking a positive perspective, one might infer that 55% of consumers will spend the same (or even more) online this year! So how’s that for an Agitator waffle?!

Might this mean that nonprofits will see online giving hold more firm than direct mail as the year closes out? We’ll ask that question later this week in our next Vital Signs survey.

Tom

The latest NY Times special section on giving is, as usual, a "must-read" comprehensive review of the state of the philanthropic and charity universe.

Whatever your field of interest — medical research, alleviating poverty, arts & culture, education, international humanitarian assistance, and much more — and whether you are a donor or a recipient, there’s something in this superb compendium of articles for you. Oddly the one area not covered is the behavior in these troubled times of the small gift donor.

For the best overview, read Stephanie Strom’s article on the impact of the economic downturn on giving. Her report, prepared with assistance from James Freed, gives a surprisingly upbeat picture, given the circumstances. Foundations, with conservative investments and rolling multi-year portfolio values driving grant levels, will not have as much immediate downturn as the major market indices. Super-wealthy individual donors and corporate foundations say they might stretch out their giving a bit, but they don’t talk in terms of major cutbacks.

As noted, however, there are no articles in the compendium on the expected behavior of your basic direct mail or online small gift donor.

For insight into that, at least as proferred by nonprofit fundraisers and their consultants, you’ll need to read The Agitator’s Vital Signs 1 Report, based on our recent canvas of the community and posted last Friday. An updated Vital Signs 2 Report will be posted November 21st. Stay tuned!

Tom

Here are two exceptional articles exploring how commercial advertisers are responding to the challenging task of selling during a severe economic downturn.

As they see it, given today’s consumer psychology, every offer must emphasize — in a word — value.

From the LA Times:

"’We’re moving toward an era of conscious consumption — just because I can afford to buy something doesn’t mean I’m going to buy it,’ said Mike Sheldon, president of ad agency Deutsch LA. ‘People are questioning their need to spend.’

Shoppers also respond well to ads about the environment, Sheldon said. Surveys that his agency conducted around the country found that people were trending from living in the moment to saving for the future, from ostentation to conservation, from quantity to quality. Consumers don’t want to buy things that they’ll have to throw out in a year or two, he said. They want things that will last, both to save money and to save the environment."

From the NY Times:

"As the economy rapidly deteriorates from flourishing to floundering, marketers are scrambling to remake their advertising so products seem affordable and sensible rather than indulgent and fabulous. For many big marketers, including automakers, retailers, consumer product companies and even financial services, a major shift in consumer psychology spells an end to the aspirational advertising that has dominated their campaigns for the last decade."

Both observations strike me as on target. And both underscore two big challenges for nonprofit marketers.

First, how does a nonprofit formulate a value proposition? Sure charities and causes are all about values. But here we’re talking about why my charity, working on issue X, is a "better buy" than yours, working on the same issue. Which offers the donor more value for their contribution. Tough times raise the ugly head of competition, even for nonprofits!

Second, aspirational messages are at the heart of nonprofit fundraising. In a new era of frugality, can (or should) nonprofits abandon "aspirational" messages? Personally, I don’t think that "aspirational" and "sensible" need to conflict. Donors will always be driven by the emotional impulse to improve or better the world, whether they see themselves as saving the planet or one person. That’s the aspirational side. But, referring back to the previous point, now perhaps they will be more "sensible" in evaluating competing strategies and track records for furthering their aspirational impulse.

Effective fundraising appeals are still there waiting to be crafted … but "crafted" is the operative word. In these times, slapping together "same old, same old" messages won’t get the job done.

Tom

Today The Agitator releases the first in its new series of DonorTrends White Papers. These papers are available to subscribers to The Agitator’s new Premium service.

The first paper is titled Giving Across Generations: Issues That Appeal. It examines the levels and focus of charitable giving of three segments of US donors:

• Seniors - born before 1946
• Boomers - born 1946-1964
• Newbies - born after 1964

The data in this paper is drawn from an extensive online survey of 1,500 donors we conducted earlier this year. Much of the response data is directly comparable to the similar survey research we conducted in 2006.

Among the findings:

• Strongest growth in giving since 2006 has occurred among Newbies;
• Boomers are the enigma, declining in both percent giving and average gifts (we offer a theory as to why this might be occurring);
• The "hot" giving category across all generations is animal protection and welfare;
• The top areas for advocacy giving going forward appear to be family values, environmental protection, advocacy for the needy, and human rights.
• The most significant future challenges to America perceived by donors are falling educational achievement, coping with global economic competition, and the inability of the political system to deal with major urgent issues.

There’s plenty more analysis of generational differences and similarities in Giving Across the Generations: Issues That Appeal, as well as specific actionable recommendations for adjusting your fundraising accordingly.

Roger & Tom

The Agitator’s Week In Review.  

This week brought an end to the seemingly never-ending presidential campaigns marked by highs and lows, necessary and unnecessary divisions, indelible characters and high drama.   But in the end, grassroots engagement, and fundraising ‘firsts’ made possible by the brilliant use of technology-backed-by-philosophy combined to yield a record-shattering turnout that contributed mightily to Obama’s decisive victory.

Tom and I, who cut our organizing, fundraising and communications teeth in an era of racism, political cronyism and just-emerging power to the people, couldn’t resist the opportunity for some nostalgia.  More than most of our readers should have been subjected to.  But, that’s who we are.

Beyond the history making election, the specter of a falling economy and the inherent darkness that all this portends looms large.  But clearly one fundraiser’s darkness is another’s minor disturbance as we saw from the results of our first Vital Signs Survey released on Friday.

And so, we end the week more filled with hope than we’ve been in some months.

WEEK OF NOVEMBER 3, 2008

MONDAY:  Obama: Technology Meets Psychology.  We’ve read tons about the Obama campaign’s adroit use of the internet to marshal money and people power.  But as this excellent article in Wired points out, the real magic in Obama’s approach has been to integrate state-of-the-art use of technology with super-sophisticated organizational approaches.

Says Wired:

“Previous political campaigns have tapped the internet in innovative ways — Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential run, and Ron Paul’s bid for this year’s Republican nomination, to name two. But Obama is the first to successfully integrate technology with a revamped model of political organization that stresses volunteer participation and feedback on a massive scale, erecting a vast, intricate machine set to fuel an unprecedented get-out-the-vote drive in the final days before Tuesday’s election.”

Whatever you think of Obama’s politics, his campaign set the new gold standard for mobilizing people to volunteer and give. Plenty of lessons for cause groups to absorb.

TUESDAY:  Obama Wins!  This Election Day post was a prediction, not a result.

Of all the polls out there, Tom was sticking with his favorite research operation, the Pew Research Center.

Pew’s last poll of the campaign called it 52% - 46% in Obama’s favor. According to Pew’s data, if you are female, under-50, urban and college-educated, you’re an Obama voter.

Most interesting of all is the intensity of voter contact in this campaign.

WEDNESDAY:  The Morning After.  On Election Day  morning as I stood in the autumn sunshine of our little New England town of Chilmark, Massachusetts waiting to vote I couldn’t help but marvel at how far we as a nation have come on fundamental issues like race and how long it’s taken us to get here. 

It’s now been 40 years since the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., the fiery protests of the Vietnam War era, the rise of the women’s rights movement and many other social change movements. Four decades since the “realigning election” of 1968 which saw the primary election candidacies of Eugene McCarthy, Robert Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson’s decision not to seek re-election, and a general election where Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democrat Hubert Humphrey marking the ascendancy of the GOP.

What connects the bitterly contested Election of 2008 with the tumultuous 1968 Election is that both took place in a climate of massive national angst. In America, when times are terribly troubling there’s one constant — the likelihood that massive citizen action will arise and effect change.

And so it did this year.   And once again technology played a significant role. Not in the form of Tom Paine’s pamphleteering, or the street theater and massive protests of ‘68.  Rather, this time the use of the online technologies and techniques, in the words of Adam Nagourney of The New York Times, “… has rewritten the rules on how to reach voters, raise money, organize supporters, manage the news media, track and mold public opinion, and wage–and withstand –political attacks, including many carried by blogs that did not exist four years ago.”

But technology alone is not some magic bullet for funding and building political and social change movements. The whole “dot.com” era taught us all that you can’t depend on technologists to get results from technology. As events in 2008 prove, technology gets results only when placed in the hands of people who understand the principles of citizen action, communication and fundraising.

THURSDAY:  What a Difference Four Decades Make.   Obama’s historic victory got Tom reminiscing about his own formative political experience, which happens to date to 1968, when the Vietnam war and racial tensions were the driving, divisive factors in the presidential election.
Tom recalls… “In that year, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King were assassinated; I watched the city of Washington burning, with Army tanks on the streets, from the roof of my university dorm; the success of anti-war candidate Gene McCarthy in the New Hampshire Democratic primary triggered the decision of President Lyndon Johnson not to seek re-election; and Chicago police brutally attacked anti-war protesters outside the Democratic Party Convention before a live nation-wide television audience.

“That convention nominated LBJ’s Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, as its presidential candidate. Humphrey was the “happy warrior” — a social democrat to his core — who had achieved political fame in 1948, two decades earlier, when he delivered an impassioned speech at that year’s Democratic Convention. “The time has arrived in America for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states’ rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights,” he pleaded, winning support for an unprecedented pro-civil-rights plank in the Party’s platform.

“Humphrey lost the 1968 election by 511,944 votes (out of 73 million cast) to Richard Nixon, largely for two reasons. His pro-civil rights history still infuriated racists in the South, whose most notorious champion, Governor George Wallace of Alabama, ran as an independent candidate for president and captured about 10 million votes. And Humphrey’s too-late decision to disassociate himself from LBJ’s Vietnam war meant that he never captured the passion and support of young voters in America, who were numbed by the deaths of Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King.

“Fast forward 40 years.

“Not since Jimmy Carter has a Democrat been elected US President with a majority of the popular vote. Bill Clinton failed to achieve this in his two successful campaigns. Whatever your politics, aren’t clear-cut majorities nice?!

“More importantly, according to exit polls on Tuesday, Barack Obama won significant support from white voters, most especially those under 30 years of age.

“Obama lost the white vote in every age group over 30, and especially men. But 57% of white Americans under 30 gave their vote to him.

“And, again according to exit polls, amongst all voters under age 30 (18% of the US electorate), Obama received 66%-69% of the vote, as well as 69% of the votes of first-time voters. This latter group propelled voter turnout (131 million voters) to probably the highest percentage — around 64%, according to first counts — since 1908.

“So, to me, the contrasts that are most striking about these four-decade political bookends are …

“First, that race has effectively — not entirely — disappeared as a factor in American presidential politics, and — thankfully for the future — it clearly is a non-issue amongst younger voters.

“Second, whereas in 1968 young voters were disenfranchised and disillusioned by the time the election occurred, in 2008 they have been the powerhouse of the Obama campaign. They constituted the largest segment of the volunteer field army that worked — 1.5 million volunteers in the battleground states alone — to turn out the vote on election day for Obama.

“And, I might add for The Agitator’s online-friendly audience, this was a young army totally immersed in and empowered by sophisticated use of internet technology to advance their candidate and cause. Even had youth been energized in 1968, they would not have had the tools to achieve what the tech-savvy under-30s accomplished in 2008 for Barack Obama.

“A few days before he was killed, Martin Luther King said these words (here is the audio):

“If we will stand and work together, we will bring into being that day when justice will roll down like waters and righteousness like a mighty stream … we will bring into being that day when America will no longer be two nations, but it will be one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”

“What a difference four decades make!”

FRIDAY:  Fundraising Vital Signs 1 –Responses.   

With our “Vital Signs – 1” survey, we asked readers share their prognostications regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of 2008.

We received 126 completed surveys, and 55 individual fundraisers offered to join a panel to report further assessments as the year plays out. Three-of-four respondents work in a nonprofit organization; the other respondents work for a fundraising agency or as independent fundraising consultants. Our respondents are nicely representative of the full range of nonprofits, from advocacy groups, social/human services and arts & culture, to medical/health, education and humanitarian assistance. Thank you one and all.

Click here for an overview of the findings and responses.

And click here to view the full results, bearing in mind that these responses are directional only.

Over the next two weeks we will again ask our Panelists to update and again share their insights. 

We’ll be reporting on Vital Signs  II in the November 21st edition of the Agitator.

Your Weekend Bonus:   With Tom and me choked up with a combination of joy and nostalgia over the Obama victory and at the same time compiling the results of the first Vital Signs Survey leave it to Seth Godin to make some useful  and, yes, brilliant marketing insights the 2008 presidential campaigns try this piece .

Key observations from Seth Godin:

Stories really matter.  Most marketers are obsessed with ‘features’, but in reality it’s the ‘story people really respond to. And that is the case in the 2008 Campaign.

Permission matters.  The Obama campaign turned down the spam and turned up the permission and used personal and relevant messages which always outperform spam.

Marketing is tribal.  Karl Rove’s cultivation of “the base” is shorthand of a tribe of people with shared interests and vision.  John McCain didn’t particularly like that base nor did they like him, but chose Sarah Palin to appeal to it and also hoped to pick up Hillary Clinton’s tribe as well.    Obama built his own, new tribe.  And when the attack ads on Obama came his tribe identified with him.  Attacking him was like attacking them resulting in more donations and bigger turnout.

According to Seth the lesson that we all should take away about all marketing is a simple one. “When you buy a product, you’re also buying the marketing.  Buy something from a phone telemarketer, you get more phone telemarketers, guaranteed.  Buy a gas guzzler and they’ll build more. Marketers are simple people…they make what sells.  Our culture has purchased (and voted) itself into the place we are today.”

To all the Agitator tribe, have a good weekend.

Roger

Last week, with our “Vital Signs – 1” survey, we asked readers of The Agitator to share their prognostications regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of 2008.We received 126 completed surveys, and 55 individual fundraisers offered to join a panel to report further assessments as the year plays out. Three-of-four respondents work in a nonprofit organization; the other respondents work for a fundraising agency or as independent fundraising consultants. Our respondents are nicely representative of the full range of nonprofits, from advocacy groups, social/human services and arts & culture, to medical/health, education and humanitarian assistance. Thank you one and all.Here is an overview of the responses. The full results can be viewed here. Keep in mind these responses are directional only.Key findingsThe last quarter won’t be a disaster for everyone:

• 31% of responding nonprofits expect their last quarter 2008 returns to be down by 10% or more, compared to actual returns for the same period in 2007;
• 27% of nonprofits expect their last quarter 2008 returns to be down by less than 10%;
• Sectors expecting the least downturn were faith-based groups (28% total down), and animal welfare (33% down);
• Sectors expecting the greatest downturn were humanitarian assistance (100% expected a downturn), social or human services (69%), education (63%) and arts & culture (60%).

Agencies/consultants are more pessimistic than their nonprofit clients:

• The most stable fundraising programs for most respondents were monthly giving (20% expect a downturn) and renewals (29%);
• The biggest losses in the last quarter are expected in prospecting (49% expect a downturn), major gifts (42%), special appeals (41%), and reinstatements (33%);
• Agencies and consultants had a more pessimistic outlook, seeing far more substantial downturns in all programs with the exception of monthly giving (24% expect downturn) — renewals (48%), prospecting (63%, including 30% “significantly” down), major gifts (64%), reinstatements (65%), and special appeals (66%).

Looking at the differences between nonprofits and advisers with respect to individual types of programs, one can only wonder if the advisers haven’t yet shared the bad news, or if nonprofit clients aren’t absorbing it!What are fundraisers doing about the situation?

• Both advisers (78%) and clients (76%) consistently report that they have adjusted messaging to reflect the economic environment.
• Advisors (62%) and nonprofits (50%) say they are soliciting their house files more aggressively;
• Advisors (56%) and nonprofits (46%) say they have re-projected returns for the last quarter;
• And, on the other hand, nonprofits (16%) are a bit more likely than advisers (9%) to have reduced prospecting investments.

Finally, 24% of responding nonprofits project that they will have fewer donors/members at the end of 2008 than they had at year-end 2007. Not too different from the 27% of advisers who make the same assessment for their clients. Only 15% of advisers say their clients will have grown in size (compared to 25% of nonprofits who think they will grow over 2007); but the largest group of advisers (58%), not surprisingly, say that some clients will have more, some less.All in all, our respondents seem to expect moderate, but not catastrophic, declines in year-end revenue. And agencies/consultants appear a bit more cautious, if not negative, than their counterparts within nonprofits.To close, here is a flavoring of the verbatim comments offered by respondents to add some texture to the findings and illustrate what fundraisers are doing to rise to the challenge:

• Regular and middle donors are about flat. Acquisition is easy, retention is the challenge. Key is moving them from 1-shot program participant to engaged to ownership. The major donor challenge is whether they are liquid with their capital or whether it’s tied up in fixed assets.
• The big bump this year for us has been online fundraising. It has more than made up for losses in our traditional mail fundraising.
• We aren’t seeing as many increases in renewals as we have the past several years. People are either renewing at the same level or slightly lower.
• Response rates are close to last year’s, but average direct response gifts are significantly down.
• Returns based on personal relationships are meeting expectations … returns that can only be solicited through mail are the “iffy” ones.
• In today’s market, we’ve postponed doing any prospecting.
• Trying to maintain momentum on more personal methods of acquiring new donors and renewing old donors (house parties, personal calls, etc.)
• Cutting costs in events; sending no-ask messages; offering options for multi-month payments, pledges; positioning opt-outs of benefits more strategically.
• More education about multiple-levels of giving, more connections between mission and inviting/asking, good stewarding and more creative asking.
• We are focusing on major donors as they are more insulated from current economic trends.
• Acknowledge the economic situation and try to position our organizational mission as a must priority that should stay on top of their short list.
• We’re keeping the same mailing schedule as we usually do, but are being much more aggressive in our messaging in the appeals being sent.
• Fine-tuning solicitation list to curb cost.
• We are communicating more frequently with current donors. We are reviewing our expenditures and asking each department to categorize line items by essential, can defer, and would like but can live without. We are continuing programs, adding a new program, and calling public attention that we are moving ahead with our mission while understanding the economic situation.
• We are being more conservative in our plans, but not reducing or eliminating mailings. We will probably hold back on creative tests and focus on what we can do to improve the ROI.
• We are keeping our message extremely positive. We believe that an Obama win will be a plus for us. Donors will be celebrating, and will likely make gifts to agencies like ours that have suffered during Bush’s administration. We are weaving the success message into our year end strategy. Coupled with an economic downturn message that focuses on our clients’ struggles.
• Working to build and maintain our donor relationships. We are moving away from mail to more focused, interactive, human-oriented approaches.
• We are not expecting a downturn because we are soliciting our more aggressively through direct mail, email, and face to face. Likewise, we are increasing our stewardship to ensure our donors feel good about their investment in our organization.
• More carefully targeting reactivation efforts to lapsed donors; increasing multi-channel messaging (mail/email/phone); testing downgrade offers and lower dollar monthly giving asks.
• We are initiating new cultivation and solicitation efforts in major gifts and through a newsletter.
• Focusing more on (using) our most committed donors, through fundraising methods like Social Network Fundraising. And reducing ‘general messaging’ like e.g. annual fees, and focusing on special appeals.

We will be repeating the survey cycle by asking our Vital Signs panelists to update their assessments, with our next report due for publishing on November 21st.Hope this information is helpful. Again, the full results can be viewed here.Roger & Tom 

Roger’s piece yesterday on Obama’s historic victory got me reminiscing about my own formative political experience, which happens to date to 1968, when the Vietnam war and racial tensions were the driving, divisive factors in the presidential election.So, if you’ll indulge me a bit … before we resume our routine coverage of fundraising!In that year, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King were assassinated; I watched the city of Washington burning, with Army tanks on the streets, from the roof of my university dorm; the success of anti-war candidate Gene McCarthy in the New Hampshire Democratic primary triggered the decision of President Lyndon Johnson not to seek re-election; and Chicago police brutally attacked anti-war protesters outside the Democratic Party Convention before a live nation-wide television audience.That convention nominated LBJ’s Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, as its presidential candidate. Humphrey was the “happy warrior” — a social democrat to his core — who had achieved political fame in 1948, two decades earlier, when he delivered an impassioned speech at that year’s Democratic Convention. “The time has arrived in America for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states’ rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights,” he pleaded, winning support for an unprecedented pro-civil-rights plank in the Party’s platform.Humphrey lost the 1968 election by 511,944 votes (out of 73 million cast) to Richard Nixon, largely for two reasons. His pro-civil rights history still infuriated racists in the South, whose most notorious champion, Governor George Wallace of Alabama, ran as an independent candidate for president and captured about 10 millon votes. And Humphrey’s too-late decision to disassociate himself from LBJ’s Vietnam war meant that he never captured the passion and support of young voters in America, who were numbed by the deaths of Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King.Fast forward 40 years.Not since Jimmy Carter has a Democrat been elected US President with a majority of the popular vote. Bill Clinton failed to achieve this in his two successful campaigns. Whateer your politics, aren’t clear-cut majorities nice?!More importantly, according to exit polls on Tuesday, Barack Obama won significant support from white voters, most especially those under 30 years of age.Obama lost the white vote in every age group over 30, and especially men. But 57% of white Americans under 30 gave their vote to him.And, again according to exit polls, amongst all voters under age 30 (18% of the US electorate), Obama received 66%-69% of the vote, as well as 69% of the votes of first-time voters. This latter group propelled voter turnout (131 million voters) to probably the highest percentage — around 64%, according to first counts — since 1908.So, to me, the contrasts that are most striking about these four-decade political bookends are …First, that race has effectively — not entirely — disappeared as a factor in American presidential politics, and — thankfully for the future — it clearly is a non-issue amongst younger voters.Second, whereas in 1968 young voters were disenfranchised and disillusioned by the time the election occurred, in 2008 they have been the powerhouse of the Obama campaign. They constituted the largest segment of the volunteer field army that worked — 1.5 million volunteers in the battleground states alone — to turn out the vote on election day for Obama.And, I might add for The Agitator’s online-friendly audience, this was a young army totally immersed in and empowered by sophisticated use of internet technology to advance their candidate and cause. Even had youth been energised in 1968, they would not have had the tools to achieve what the tech-savvy under-30s accomplished in 2008 for Barack Obama.A few days before he was killed, Martin Luther King said these words (here is the audio):“If we will stand and work together, we will bring into being that day when justice will roll down like waters and righteousness like a mighty stream … we will bring into being that day when America will no longer be two nations, but it will be one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”What a difference four decades make!TomP.S. If you want some more practical marketing insight from the campaign, try this piece by Seth Godin, who as usual, makes some really smart and useful observations.

Yesterday morning as I stood in the autumn sunshine of our little New England town of Chilmark, Massachusetts waiting to vote I couldn’t help but marvel at how far we as a nation have come on fundamental issues like race and how long it’s taken us to get here. It’s now been 40 years since the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., the fiery protests of the Vietnam War era, the rise of the women’s rights movement and many other social change movements. Four decades since the “realigning election” of 1968 which saw the primary election candidacies of Eugene McCarthy, Robert Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson’s decision not to seek re-election, and a general election where Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democrat Hubert Humphrey marking the ascendancy of the GOP.Yesterday’s result represents, in the eyes of many, another “realigning election”, this time in favor of the Democrats. What connects the bitterly contested Election of 2008 with the tumultuous 1968 Election is that both took place in a climate of massive national angst.In America, when times are terribly troubling there’s one constant — the likelihood that massive citizen action will arise and effect change. And so it did this year. Once again massive numbers of caring, concerned citizens took matters into their own hands and got off their apathy.And once again technology played a significant role. Not in the form of Tom Paine’s pampleteering, or the street theater and massive protests of ‘68, or direct mail of the ’70s.Rather, this time the use of the online technologies and techniques, in the words of Adam Nagourney of The New York Times, “… has rewritten the rules on how to reach voters, raise money, organize supporters, manage the news media, track and mold public opinion, and wage–and withstand –political attacks, including many carried by blogs that did not exist four years ago.”But technology alone is not some magic bullet for funding and building political and social change movements. The whole “dot.com” era taught us all that you can’t depend on technologists to get results from technology. As events in 2008 prove, technology gets results only when placed in the hands of people who understand the principles of citizen action, communication and fundraising.Roger

OK, what else are you thinking about today?!Anyway, this is a prediction, not a result.Of all the polls out there, I’m sticking with my favorite research operation, the Pew Research Center.Their last poll of the campaign calls it 52% - 46% in Obama’s favor. According to Pew’s data, if you are female, under-50, urban and college-educated, you’re an Obama voter.But here’s the stat that really caught my eye …“Obama holds a wide lead over John McCain among those who say they have already voted (32% of all likely voters) or say they plan to vote before Election Day (7%). However, it is not quite as large as it was a week ago. More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.”WOW … one point difference for Tuesday voters! Just goes to show that McCain is indeed a survivor. I’d love to see him compete on that show!But most interesting of all is the intensity of voter contact in this campaign. Consider this table:

Surprisingly to me, only 28% of registered voters say they have received an email communication from one of the presidential campaigns. Not bad, actually, if that refers to messages directly from the campaigns; but seems low if it means any kind of candidate-promoting email, given the extent of viral messaging that’s gone on, especially on the Obama side.Speaking of polls …Have you taken our Vital Signs survey? We’re polling Agitator readers on your fundraising expectations for the balance of 2008. We’re publishing the results on Friday the 7th. If you want to be included, take the survey by COB Wednesday. Just eight questions.Tom

If Obama loses the election tomorrow, which now appears inconceivable, it will not be because of inferior grassroots organizing.We’ve read tons about the Obama campaign’s adroit use of the internet to marshall money and people power.But as this excellent article in Wired points out, the real magic in Obama’s approach has been to integrate state-of-the-art use of technology with super-sophisticated organizational approaches.Says Wired:“Previous political campaigns have tapped the internet in innovative ways — Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential run, and Ron Paul’s bid for this year’s Republican nomination, to name two. But Obama is the first to successfully integrate technology with a revamped model of political organization that stresses volunteer participation and feedback on a massive scale, erecting a vast, intricate machine set to fuel an unprecedented get-out-the-vote drive in the final days before Tuesday’s election.”Noting that huge resources have gone into professional organizing in the Obama campaign, Wired goes on to describe how an individual volunteer in Florida has used the available online tools to “do her own thing” with unprecedented effectiveness:“Scanlon (the volunteer) logs her activities on myBo (myBarackObama.com), which awards points for various volunteer activities. The point system helps other would-be supporters figure out who they can hook up with locally if they want to get more involved in the campaign, says Hughes. (Chris Hughes, co-founder of Facebook, who left that company to help Obama with his online organizational efforts.)“If you go to your local group in your small town, you can immediately find out who’s the most active person, and who just joined the group for the sake of joining the group,” Hughes says. “And that gives you, the individual Obama supporter, much more information. You can measure your own activity against others, and you can contact the most active people within the groups.”In other words, even self-motivated “freelancers” operating outside the orbit of professional organizers in the campaign get plugged in and reinforced in a very sophisticated manner. In fact, the people-organizing tactics used by the Obama campaign are taken from organizational theories — grounded in social and interpersonal psychology — developed by a Harvard team in 2006-7 that studied ways to rejuvenate the Sierra Club’s grassroots organizing.The result of this marriage of state-of-the-art technology and best insights from psychology is a field operation that has mobilized 1.5 million volunteers in battleground states … volunteers armed with vast amounts of up-to-date voter data. The candidate is surely the energizer; but this marriage has been the mobilizer.Whatever you think of Obama’s politics, his campaign has set the new gold standard for mobilizing people to volunteer and give. Plenty of lessons for cause groups to absorb.Chris Hughes, you deserve a raise … and probably a vacation!TomP.S. Have you taken our Vital Signs survey? We’re polling Agitator readers on your fundraising expectations for the balance of 2008. We’re publishing the results on Friday the 7th. If you want to be included, take the survey by COB Wednesday. Just eight questions.

The Agitator’s Week In Review. It’s countdown time. 72 hours ’til Election Day. 1,464 hours ’til the account books close on December 31. And while the pollsters (or at least most of them) are predicting an Obama victory it’s not nearly as clear how fundraisers will fare in the final 61 days to year’s end.

So, in an effort to provide some insight Tom and I decided to seek the experience and prognostications you and other Agitator readers by publishing a Vital Signs Survey so we can all share each others’ insights on what is happening now and what is likely to happen as we head to the end of 2008.

Please join in. Take a few moments to let us know what you’re seeing and how what you think the current climate means to 2008 results. We’ll share those results next Friday. And then every two weeks we’ll update the survey until year’s end.

WEEK OF OCTOBER 27, 2008

MONDAY: Good news on the level of expected online giving for the holiday season. A “must read” report from Convio and Jupiter Research on the holiday giving intentions of 175.6 million online users in the U.S. offers reassuring news in these troubled times:

• 51% say they intend to give online to charities;
• 24% say they will give $100 or more;
• Even of those who say their financial situation is worse than last year, 46% say they plan to donate; and…
• 61% say they will give about the same as last year, 6% say more, 33% say less.

Get the full report here from Convio. Don’t delay.

TUESDAY: Another tonic for troubled times. And an Agitator “You Deserve A Raise” for its author, Sasha Dichter, Director of Business Development for the Acumen Fund, a non-profit venture capital fund supporting enterprises fighting poverty in the developing world. This fundraising manifesto, titled “In Defense of Raising Money” was brought to our attention by marketing maven Seth Godin.

Please read the whole piece which concludes: “If nothing else, then we need a new word. Fundraising is about a transaction — I reaise funds from you, you get nothing in return. “I’d rather be an eveangelist, a storyteller, an educator, a translator, a table-pounder, a guy on his soapbox, a woman with a megaphone, a candidate for change. I want to talk to as many people as I can about my ideas–whether in person or in newsletters or on Facebook or Twitter or in the Economist or at the TED conference or at Davos –and capture their imagination about the change I hope to see in the world. “Don’t you?”

WEDNESDAY: Tom led us on a much-needed mid-week break from the woes of fundraising in a recession and the endless achievements of Obama’s online fundraising machine to the world of neuromaketing. Buyology: Truth and Lies About Why We Buy by Martin Lindstrom is the report of a three year, $7 million research project into what really goes on in the brains of consumers as they watch commercials and think about brands.

Buyology discusses findings like……is the brain actually stimulated by cigarette warning labels? [Tom ponders about the effect of global warming warnings.]…do brains really perceive brands the way they perceive religions? [Tom wonders: “What’s the chemistry of zealotry?”]…can you ‘watch’ the brain to predict which TV programs will succeed? [Tom asks, “How about which fundraising appeals will succeed?”]To learn more about what the brain MRIs and EEGs revealed and whether this fascinating book is for you click on the review here.

THURSDAY: Biggest surprise from an excellent white paper on marketing channel preferences is the continuing preference among younger consumers (age 18-34) for direct mail and email when it comes to receiving marketing messages.

The study from Ball State University’s Center for Media Design and email marketing company ExactTarget contains some fascinating findings:

* 20 percent of wired consumers have signed up for marketing offers via SMS, but they want to receive text messages only for urgent customer service issues such as financial alerts or travel updaes;

*more than 50% of young homemakers use social networks and SMS during the day, but direct mail and e-mail are their two preferred marketing channels;

* 81 % of retired consumers have purchased online (no reason they shouldn’t be contributing online too.)

* in the ‘established professionals’ group of six target groups studied, women are more likely to use new channels like Instant Messaging, SMS and social networking to communicate with friends and family. But when it comes to shopping online 92% of both men and women in this group have made online purchases.

Read more from the article in eMarketing & Commerce and from there download the white paper.

FRIDAY: We ended the week at the Agitator by launching a brief eight-question Vital Signs Survey to collect perceptions and predictions of our readers on their outlook non-profit fundraising over the balance of 2008.

Please take the Vital Signs Surveyby November 5th. We plan to report the results on Friday, November 7th. After that we will publish fresh survey results every two weeks for the balance of the year, as reported by those of you who choose to share your impressions though our Vital Signs Panel.

Your Weekend Bonus: “The partnership between nonprofit organizations and their donors is never more important thatn during times of uncertainty.” Those were the words of wisdom that greeted me in a Friday morning email from my friend and major gift guru John Glier of Grenzebach Glier and Associates.Tom and I’ve been covering a lot of ground over the financial/economic cries, but mostly as it’s likely to affect smaller gifts.

So, it was good to receive a take and some sound advice on the current situation from one of the premiere major gifts experts. “…we are convinced that the best course for the non-profit sector is to fucus on the activities that have always served it well: ensuring a compelling case for support, leading in ways that generate trust in institutional leadership, building and sustaining relationship, inviting philanthropic support, and stewarding the donors who have made gifts in the past.”

John then goes on to offer the following reminders:

* Well-managed fundraising programs prevail among and across many different economic and political landscapes. Strong institutions are maintaining their philanthropic activities, albeit with sensitivity and a recognition that some donors will defer a gift decision or delay a pledge payment.

*Annual giving programs should take care to monitor gifts from loyal donors and be certain that those donors are asked to continue their support. Annual fund officers should look carefully at previous donors who have made leadership gifts of stock from donor-advised funds, and should consider direct conversations with those donors about how they will make their gifts this year.

*It is critical to know your donors and be sensitive to their personal timing. Stay close to those who have supported you in the past and increase your stewardship activities. Some donors will continue to give, and most will re-engage when they are feeling more comfortable. It is particularly important at this time to assure donors that their past support continues to have impact and is appreciated.

Amen! I say.  And have a great weekend.

Roger

Given the challenging economic environment as the books close on calendar 2008, The Agitator would like to take the pulse of fundraisers and share your collective sense of the fundraising outlook for nonprofits over the balance of the year.

We have put together this brief eight-question Vital Signs survey to collect your perceptions and predictions.Whether you work in a nonprofit or for a fundraising agency or as a fundraising consultant, we would like to hear and share your prognostications.

Please take the Vital Signs survey by November 5th, as we plan to report the results on Friday, November 7th.

Thereafter, we will publish fresh Vital Signs survey results every two weeks for the balance of the year, as reported by those of you who choose to share your impressions through our Vital Signs Panel.

We look forward to your assessment … and hope you will participate in our Vital Signs Panel.

Roger & Tom

Here’s a white paper (must register to download) on marketing channel preferences from Ball State University’s Center for Media Design and ExactTarget, a email marketing company.

They looked at six target segments and their preferences regarding media for receiving marketing messages. Biggest surprise was the continuing preference among younger consumers (age 18-34) for direct mail and email when it comes to receiving marketing messages.

Some findings:

* 20 percent of wired consumers have signed up for marketing offers via short message service, but they want to receive text messages only for urgent customer service issues such as financial alerts or travel updates;

* more than 50 percent of young homemakers use social networks and SMS during the day, but direct mail and e-mail are their two preferred marketing channels;

* 81 percent of retired consumers have purchased online (this is the finding that impresses me … no reason they shouldn’t be donating online);

* college students believe private communication channels such as SMS and social networks are off-limits for marketers;

* teens use social networking more than any other group, but are more likely to make a purchase from direct mail, followed by e-mail; and

* in the established professionals group, women are more likely to use new channels like instant messaging, SMS and social networking to communicate with friends and family, but both men and women shop online, with 92 percent of consumers in this group having made an online purchase.

Here’s the article from eMarketing & Commerce; from there you can download the paper.

Tom